| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| DOI | 10.3386/w11064
|
| 来源ID | Working Paper 11064
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| Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy |
| Martin D.D. Evans
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| 发表日期 | 2005-01-24
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| 出版年 | 2005
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | This paper describes a method for calculating daily real-time estimates of the current state of the U.S. economy. The estimates are computed from data on scheduled U.S. macroeconomic announcements using an econometric model that allows for variable reporting lags, temporal aggregation, and other complications in the data. The model can be applied to find real-time estimates of GDP, inflation, unemployment or any other macroeconomic variable of interest. In this paper I focus on the problem of estimating the current level of and growth rate in GDP. I construct daily real-time estimates of GDP that incorporate public information known on the day in question. The real-time estimates produced by the model are uniquely-suited to studying how perceived developments the macro economy are linked to asset prices over a wide range of frequencies. The estimates also provide, for the first time, daily time series that can be used in practical policy decisions. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Business Cycles
; Econometrics
; Estimation Methods
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w11064
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/568699
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Martin D.D. Evans. Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy. 2005.
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文件名：
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w11064.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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