全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w11270
来源ID	Working Paper 11270
	Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League
	Cade Massey; Richard Thaler
发表日期	2005-04-18
出版年	2005
语种	英语
摘要	A question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the incentives and experience present in many "real world" settings mitigate judgment and decision-making biases. To investigate this question, we analyze the decision making of National Football League teams during their annual player draft. This is a domain in which incentives are exceedingly high and the opportunities for learning rich. It is also a domain in which multiple psychological factors suggest teams may overvalue the "right to choose" in the draft -- non-regressive predictions, overconfidence, the winner's curse and false consensus all suggest a bias in this direction. Using archival data on draft-day trades, player performance and compensation, we compare the market value of draft picks with the historical value of drafted players. We find that top draft picks are overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets and consistent with psychological research.
主题	International Economics ; International Factor Mobility ; Labor Economics ; Labor Compensation ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w11270
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/568907
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cade Massey,Richard Thaler. Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League. 2005.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w11270.pdf（499KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览