| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w11468 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 11468 |
| Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average? | |
| John Y. Campbell; Samuel B. Thompson | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-07-04 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A number of variables are correlated with subsequent returns on the aggregate US stock market in the 20th Century. Some of these variables are stock market valuation ratios, others reflect patterns in corporate finance or the levels of short- and long-term interest rates. Amit Goyal and Ivo Welch (2004) have argued that in-sample correlations conceal a systematic failure of these variables out of sample: None are able to beat a simple forecast based on the historical average stock return. In this note we show that forecasting variables with significant forecasting power in-sample generally have a better out-of-sample performance than a forecast based on the historical average return, once sensible restrictions are imposed on the signs of coefficients and return forecasts. The out-of-sample predictive power is small, but we find that it is economically meaningful. We also show that a variable is quite likely to have poor out-of-sample performance for an extended period of time even when the variable genuinely predicts returns with a stable coefficient. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Financial Markets |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w11468 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569110 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | John Y. Campbell,Samuel B. Thompson. Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w11468.pdf（556KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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