| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w11583 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 11583 |
| Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing | |
| Hamid Faruqee; Douglas Laxton; Dirk Muir; Paolo Pesenti | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-08-29 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper re-examines the implications, risks, and attendant policies surrounding global rebalancing of current accounts through the lens of a dynamic, multi-region model of the global economy. In the baseline scenario, world macroeconomic imbalances of the early 2000s can be attributed to a combination of six related but distinct tendencies: (i)expansionary U.S. fiscal policy, (ii) declining rate of U.S. private savings, (iii) increased foreign demand for U.S. assets, particularly in Asia, (iv) strong productivity growth in emerging Asia, (v) lagging productivity growth in Japan and the euro area, and (vi) gaining export competitiveness in emerging Asia. The baseline projects stabilizing U.S. public and foreign debt (albeit at higher levels) and a gradual depreciation of the dollar, allowing the U.S. external deficit to gradually move to a sustainable level. An alternative scenario, involving a sudden portfolio reshuffling in the rest of the world, would result in higher U.S. real interest rates, a significantly weaker dollar, with harmful effects on U.S. (and possibly global) growth. More flexible exchange rates in emerging Asia can help reduce variability in both regional output and inflation. Other simulations consider the effects of U.S. fiscal adjustment, as well as growth-enhancing structural reforms in Europe and Japan. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w11583 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569228 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hamid Faruqee,Douglas Laxton,Dirk Muir,et al. Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w11583.pdf（783KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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