| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w11850 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 11850 |
| Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model | |
| Axel Boersch-Supan; Alexander Ludwig; Joachim Winter | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-12-12 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Population aging and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old-age provision towards more pre-funding. Third, while the patterns of population aging are similar in most counries, timing and initial conditions differ substantially. Hence, to the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will induce capital flows between countries. All three effects influence the rate of return to capital and interact with the demand for capital in production and with labor supply. In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed this multi-country overlapping generations model with detailed long-term demographic projections for seven world regions. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from fast-aging regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings. We also conclude that closed-economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; International Economics ; International Factor Mobility ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w11850 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569501 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Axel Boersch-Supan,Alexander Ludwig,Joachim Winter. Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w11850.pdf（555KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
