| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w11861 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 11861 |
| Can Standard Preferences Explain the Prices of out of the Money S&P 500 Put Options | |
| Luca Benzoni; Pierre Collin-Dufresne; Robert S. Goldstein | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-12-19 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Prior to the stock market crash of 1987, Black-Scholes implied volatilities of S&P 500 index options were relatively constant across moneyness. Since the crash, however, deep out-of-the-money S&P 500 put options have become %u2018expensive%u2019 relative to the Black-Scholes benchmark. Many researchers (e.g., Liu, Pan and Wang (2005)) have argued that such prices cannot be justified in a general equilibrium setting if the representative agent has %u2018standard preferences%u2019 and the endowment is an i.i.d. process. Below, however, we use the insight of Bansal and Yaron (2004) to demonstrate that the %u2018volatility smirk%u2019 can be rationalized if the agent is endowed with Epstein-Zin preferences and if the aggregate dividend and consumption processes are driven by a persistent stochastic growth variable that can jump. We identify a realistic calibration of the model that simultaneously matches the empirical properties of dividends, the equity premium, the prices of both at-the-money and deep out-of-the-money puts, and the level of the risk-free rate. A more challenging question (that to our knowledge has not been previously investigated) is whether one can explain within a standard preference framework the stark regime change in the volatility smirk that has maintained since the 1987 market crash. To this end, we extend the model to a Bayesian setting in which the agent updates her beliefs about the average jump size in the event of a jump. Note that such beliefs only update at crash dates, and hence can explain why the volatility smirk has not diminished over the last eighteen years. We find that the model can capture the shape of the implied volatility curve both pre- and post-crash while maintaining reasonable estimates for expected returns, price-dividend ratios, and risk-free rates. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Financial Institutions ; Other ; Economic Systems |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w11861 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569512 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luca Benzoni,Pierre Collin-Dufresne,Robert S. Goldstein. Can Standard Preferences Explain the Prices of out of the Money S&P 500 Put Options. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w11861.pdf（371KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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