全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Cross-Section of Countries

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w11862
来源ID	Working Paper 11862
	How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Cross-Section of Countries
	Adi Brender; Allan Drazen
发表日期	2005-12-19
出版年	2005
语种	英语
摘要	Conventional wisdom is that good economic conditions or expansionary fiscal policy help incumbents get re-elected, but this has not been tested in a large cross-section of countries. We test these arguments in a sample of 74 countries over the period 1960-2003. We find no evidence that deficits help reelection in any group of countries -- developed and less developed, new and old democracies, countries with different government or electoral systems, and countries with different levels of democracy. In developed countries, especially old democracies, election-year deficits actually reduce the probability that a leader is reelected, with similar negative electoral effects of deficits in the earlier years of an incumbent's term in office. Higher growth rates of real GDP per-capita raise the probability of reelection only in the less developed countries and in new democracies, but voters are affected by growth over the leader's term in office rather than in the election year itself. Low inflation is rewarded by voters only in the developed countries. The effects we find are not only statistically significant, but also quite substantial quantitatively. We also suggest how the absence of a positive electoral effect of deficits can be consistent with the political deficit cycle found in new democracies.
主题	Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w11862
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569513
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Adi Brender,Allan Drazen. How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Cross-Section of Countries. 2005.

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w11862.pdf（383KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览