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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w11875
来源IDWorking Paper 11875
The Future of Drug Development: The Economics of Pharmacogenomics
John A. Vernon; W. Keener Hughen
发表日期2005-12-19
出版年2005
语种英语
摘要This paper models how the evolving field of pharmacogenomics (PG), which is the science of using genomic markers to predict drug response, may impact drug development times, attrition rates, costs, and the future returns to research and development (R&D). While there still remains an abundance of uncertainty around how PG will impact the future landscape of pharmaceutical and biological R&D, we identify several likely outcomes. We conclude PG has the potential to significantly reduce both expected drug development costs (via higher probabilities of technical success, shorter clinical development times, and smaller clinical trials) and returns. The impact PG has on expected returns is partially mitigated by higher equilibrium prices, expedited product launches, and longer effective patent lives. Our conclusions are, of course, accompanied by numerous caveats.
主题Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w11875
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569526
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John A. Vernon,W. Keener Hughen. The Future of Drug Development: The Economics of Pharmacogenomics. 2005.
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