全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w11921
来源ID	Working Paper 11921
	The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output
	Charles Engel; John H. Rogers
发表日期	2006-01-16
出版年	2006
语种	英语
摘要	We investigate the possibility that the large current account deficits of the U.S. are the outcome of optimizing behavior. We develop a simple long-run world equilibrium model in which the current account is determined by the expected discounted present value of its future share of world GDP relative to its current share of world GDP. The model suggests that under some reasonable assumptions about future U.S. GDP growth relative to the rest of the advanced countries -- more modest than the growth over the past 20 years -- the current account deficit is near optimal levels. We then explore the implications for the real exchange rate. Under some plausible assumptions, the model implies little change in the real exchange rate over the adjustment path, though the conclusion is sensitive to assumptions about tastes and technology. Then we turn to empirical evidence. A test of current account sustainability suggests that the U.S. is not keeping on a long-run sustainable path. A direct test of our model finds that the dynamics of the U.S. current account -- the increasing deficits over the past decade -- are difficult to explain under a particular statistical model (Markov-switching) of expectations of future U.S. growth. But, if we use survey data on forecasted GDP growth in the G7, our very simple model appears to explain the evolution of the U.S. current account remarkably well. We conclude that expectations of robust performance of the U.S. economy relative to the rest of the advanced countries is a contender -- though not the only legitimate contender -- for explaining the U.S.
主题	International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w11921
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569572
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Charles Engel,John H. Rogers. The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output. 2006.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w11921.pdf（352KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览