| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w11978 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 11978 |
| Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters | |
| Joseph Engelberg; Charles F. Manski; Jared Williams | |
| 发表日期 | 2006-01-23 |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend to be favorable relative to the central tendency of the underlying distributions. We also find that those forecasters who report favorable point estimates in the current survey tend to do so in subsequent surveys. These findings, plus the inescapable fact that point forecasts reveal nothing about the uncertainty that forecasters feel, suggest that the SPF and similar surveys should not ask for point forecasts. It seems more reasonable to elicit probabilistic expectations and derive measures of central tendency and uncertainty, as we do here. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Money and Interest Rates |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w11978 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569629 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joseph Engelberg,Charles F. Manski,Jared Williams. Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters. 2006. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w11978.pdf（259KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
