| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w12053
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 12053
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| Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets |
| Andrew Leigh; Justin Wolfers
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| 发表日期 | 2006-02-20
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| 出版年 | 2006
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This election is particularly interesting both because of innovations in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly important role for these models. The performance of polls was quite uneven, and predictions both across pollsters, and through time, vary too much to be particularly useful. Betting markets provide an interesting contrast, and a slew of data from various betting agencies suggests a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout the election cycle and across individual electorates. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics
; Welfare and Collective Choice
; Economics of Information
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w12053
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569706
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Andrew Leigh,Justin Wolfers. Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets. 2006.
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文件名：
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w12053.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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