| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w12156 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 12156 |
| Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes | |
| Mark Coppejans; Donna Gilleskie; Holger Sieg; Koleman Strumpf | |
| 发表日期 | 2006-04-10 |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The goal of this paper is to analyze consumer demand in markets with large price uncertainty. We develop a demand model for goods that are subject to habit formation. We show that consumption plans of forward looking individuals depend not only on preferences and current period prices, but also on individual beliefs about the evolution of future prices. Moreover, a mean preserving spread in the price distribution and, hence, an increase in price uncertainty reduces consumption along the optimal path. With smoking as our application, we test the predictions of our model. We use a unique data set of prices for cigarettes collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to characterize price uncertainty and price expectations of individuals. We have also obtained access to the restricted use version of the National Education Longitudinal Study, which provides detailed information on smoking behavior of teenagers in the U.S. Our estimation results suggest that teenagers who live in metropolitan areas with a large amount of cigarette price volatility have, on average, significantly lower levels of cigarette consumption. Moreover, these individuals are less likely to start consuming cigarettes. Our results also provide evidence that young individuals are forward looking. Myopic individuals would not respond to an increase in uncertainty about future prices by reducing consumption. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Data Collection ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w12156 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569784 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mark Coppejans,Donna Gilleskie,Holger Sieg,et al. Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes. 2006. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w12156.pdf（387KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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