| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w12453
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 12453
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| On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare |
| Dirk Krueger; Alexander Ludwig
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| 发表日期 | 2006-08-17
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| 出版年 | 2006
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is "importing" the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics
; Mathematical Tools
; Market Structure and Distribution
; Macroeconomics
; Macroeconomic Models
; Consumption and Investment
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w12453
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/570111
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Dirk Krueger,Alexander Ludwig. On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare. 2006.
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文件名：
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w12453.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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