| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w12853 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 12853 |
| The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment | |
| Michael W. Elsby; Ryan Michaels; Gary Solon | |
| 发表日期 | 2007-01-23 |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | One of the strongest trends in recent macroeconomic modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend stems in large part from an influential paper by Shimer on "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," i.e., the extent to which increased unemployment during a recession arises from an increase in the number of unemployment spells versus an increase in their duration. After broadly reviewing the previous literature, we replicate and extend Shimer's main analysis. Like Shimer, we find an important role for increased duration. But contrary to Shimer's conclusions, we find that even his own methods and data, when viewed in an appropriate metric, reveal an important role for increased inflows to unemployment as well. This finding is further strengthened by our refinements of Shimer's methods of correcting for data problems and by our detailed examination of particular components of the inflow to unemployment. We conclude that a complete understanding of cyclical unemployment requires an explanation of countercyclical inflow rates as well as procyclical outflow rates. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Labor Economics ; Unemployment and Immigration |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w12853 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/570519 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael W. Elsby,Ryan Michaels,Gary Solon. The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment. 2007. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w12853.pdf（322KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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