全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Has Social Security Influenced Family Formation and Fertility in OECD Countries? An Economic and Econometric Analysis

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来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w12869
来源ID	Working Paper 12869
	Has Social Security Influenced Family Formation and Fertility in OECD Countries? An Economic and Econometric Analysis
	Isaac Ehrlich; Jinyoung Kim
发表日期	2007-01-30
出版年	2007
语种	英语
摘要	There is growing concern about a decline in the total fertility rate worldwide, but nowhere is the concern greater than in OECD countries, some of which already face the prospect of population decline as well. While the trend is largely the result of structural economic and social changes, our paper indicates that it is partly influenced by the scale of the defined-benefits, pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security systems operating in most countries. Through a dynamic, overlapping-generations model where the generations are linked by parental altruism, we show analytically that social security tax and benefit rates generate incentives for individuals to reduce not just the fertility rate within families, but also the incentive to form families, which we capture empirically by the fraction of adults married. We conduct calibrated simulations as well as regression analyses that measure the quantitative importance of social security tax rates in lowering both net marriage and total fertility rates. Our results show that the impact of social security on these variables has been non-trivial. Our calibrated simulations also enable us to study the effects of changes in the structure of social security on family formation and fertility.
主题	Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Development and Growth ; Development
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w12869
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/570535
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Isaac Ehrlich,Jinyoung Kim. Has Social Security Influenced Family Formation and Fertility in OECD Countries? An Economic and Econometric Analysis. 2007.

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