| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w13221 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 13221 |
| Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth? | |
| David E. Bloom; David Canning; Günther Fink; Jocelyn E. Finlay | |
| 发表日期 | 2007-07-02 |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a "demographic dividend" that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w13221 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/570889 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David E. Bloom,David Canning,Günther Fink,et al. Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?. 2007. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w13221.pdf（139KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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