| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w13526
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 13526
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| The Evolution of Inequality, Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Labor Earnings in the U.S. Economy |
| Flavio Cunha; James J. Heckman
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| 发表日期 | 2007-10-23
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| 出版年 | 2007
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | A large empirical literature documents a rise in wage inequality in the American economy. It is silent on whether the increase in inequality is due to greater heterogeneity in the components of earnings that are predictable by agents or whether it is due to greater uncertainty faced by agents. Applying the methodology of Cunha, Heckman and Navarro (2005) to data on agents making schooling decisions in different economic environments, we join choice data with earnings data to estimate the fraction of future earnings that is forecastable and how this fraction has changed over time. We find that both predictable and unpredictable components of earnings have increased in recent years. The increase in uncertainty is substantially greater for unskilled workers. For less skilled workers, roughly 60% of the increase in wage variability is due to uncertainty. For more skilled workers, only 8% of the increase in wage variability is due to uncertainty. Roughly 26% of the increase in the variance of returns to schooling is due to increased uncertainty. Using conventional measures of income inequality masks the contribution of rising uncertainty to the rise in the inequality of earnings for less educated groups. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics
; Market Structure and Distribution
; Labor Economics
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w13526
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/571202
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Flavio Cunha,James J. Heckman. The Evolution of Inequality, Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Labor Earnings in the U.S. Economy. 2007.
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文件名：
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w13526.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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