| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w13637
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 13637
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| Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries |
| Brian Knight; Nathan Schiff
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| 发表日期 | 2007-11-28
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| 出版年 | 2007
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | This paper provides an investigation of the role of momentum and social learning in sequential voting systems. In the econometric model, voters are uncertain over candidate quality, and voters in late states attempt to infer the information held by those in early states from voting returns. Candidates experience momentum effects when their performance in early states exceeds expectations. The empirical application focuses on the responses of daily polling data to the release of voting returns in the 2004 presidential primary. We find that Kerry benefited from surprising wins in early states and took votes away from Dean, who held a strong lead prior to the beginning of the primary season. The voting weights implied by the estimated model demonstrate that early voters have up to 20 times the influence of late voters in the selection of candidates, demonstrating a significant departure from the ideal of "one person, one vote." We then address several alternative, non-learning explanations for our results. Finally, we run simulations under different electoral structures and find that a simultaneous election would have been more competitive due to the absence of herding and that alternative sequential structures would have yielded different outcomes. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics
; Welfare and Collective Choice
; Economics of Information
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w13637
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/571320
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Brian Knight,Nathan Schiff. Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries. 2007.
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文件名：
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w13637.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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