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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w13637
来源IDWorking Paper 13637
Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries
Brian Knight; Nathan Schiff
发表日期2007-11-28
出版年2007
语种英语
摘要This paper provides an investigation of the role of momentum and social learning in sequential voting systems. In the econometric model, voters are uncertain over candidate quality, and voters in late states attempt to infer the information held by those in early states from voting returns. Candidates experience momentum effects when their performance in early states exceeds expectations. The empirical application focuses on the responses of daily polling data to the release of voting returns in the 2004 presidential primary. We find that Kerry benefited from surprising wins in early states and took votes away from Dean, who held a strong lead prior to the beginning of the primary season. The voting weights implied by the estimated model demonstrate that early voters have up to 20 times the influence of late voters in the selection of candidates, demonstrating a significant departure from the ideal of "one person, one vote." We then address several alternative, non-learning explanations for our results. Finally, we run simulations under different electoral structures and find that a simultaneous election would have been more competitive due to the absence of herding and that alternative sequential structures would have yielded different outcomes.
主题Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; Economics of Information
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w13637
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/571320
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Brian Knight,Nathan Schiff. Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries. 2007.
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