| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w13680 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 13680 |
| Complements versus Substitutes and Trends in Fertility Choice in Dynastic Models | |
| Larry E. Jones; Alice Schoonbroodt | |
| 发表日期 | 2007-12-20 |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The Barro-Becker model is a simple intuitive model of fertility choice. In its original formulation, however, it has not been very successful at reproducing the changes in fertility choice in response to decreased mortality and increased income growth that demographers have emphasized in explaining the demographic transition. In this paper we show that this is due to an implicit assumption that number and utility of children are complements, which is a byproduct of the high intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) typically assumed in the fertility literature. We show that, not only is this assumption not necessary, but both the qualitative and quantitative properties of the model in terms of fertility choice change dramatically when substitutability and high curvature are assumed. To do so, we first derive analytical comparative statics and perform quantitative experiments. We find that if IES is less than one, model predictions of changes in fertility amount to about two-thirds of those observed in U.S. data since 1800. There are two major sources to these predicted changes, the increase in the growth rate of productivity which accounts for about 90 percent of the predicted fall in fertility before 1880, and changes in mortality which account for 90 percent of the predicted change from 1880 to 1950. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Development and Growth ; Development |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w13680 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/571356 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Larry E. Jones,Alice Schoonbroodt. Complements versus Substitutes and Trends in Fertility Choice in Dynastic Models. 2007. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w13680.pdf（530KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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