| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w13751 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 13751 |
| The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value? | |
| Christina D. Romer; David H. Romer | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-01-22 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Should monetary policymakers take the staff forecast of the effects of policy actions as given, or should they attempt to include additional information? This paper seeks to shed light on this question by testing the usefulness of the FOMC's own forecasts. Twice a year, the FOMC makes forecasts of major macroeconomic variables. FOMC members have access to the staff forecasts when they prepare their forecasts. We find that the optimal combination of the FOMC and staff forecasts in predicting inflation and unemployment puts a weight of essentially zero on the FOMC forecast and essentially one on the staff forecast: the FOMC appears to have no value added in forecasting. The results for predicting real growth are less clear-cut. We also find statistical and narrative evidence that differences between the FOMC and staff forecasts help predict monetary policy shocks, suggesting that policymakers act in part on the basis of their apparently misguided information. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w13751 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/571425 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christina D. Romer,David H. Romer. The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w13751.pdf（80KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
