| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w13792 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 13792 |
| Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment | |
| Selim Elekdag; Rene Lalonde; Douglas Laxton; Dirk Muir; Paolo Pesenti | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-02-12 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a five-region version (Canada, a group of oil exporting countries, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks that drive oil prices. In the presence of real adjustment costs that reduce the short- and medium-term responses of oil supply and demand, our simulations can account for large endogenous variations of oil prices with large effects on the terms of trade of oil-exporting versus oil-importing countries (in particular, emerging Asia), and result in significant wealth transfers between regions. This is especially true when we consider a sustained increase in productivity growth or a shift in production technology towards more capital- (and hence oil-) intensive goods in regions such as emerging Asia. In addition, we study the implications of higher taxes on gasoline that are used to reduce taxes on labor income, showing that such a policy could increase world productive capacity while being consistent with a reduction in oil consumption. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w13792 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/571468 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Selim Elekdag,Rene Lalonde,Douglas Laxton,et al. Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w13792.pdf（613KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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