| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w13799 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 13799 |
| Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects | |
| Wolfram Schlenker; Michael J. Roberts | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-02-12 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The United States produces 41% of the world's corn and 38% of the world's soybeans, so any impact on US crop yields will have implications for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level crop yields in the US with a fine-scale weather data set that incorporates the whole distribution of temperatures between the minimum and maximum within each day and across all days in the growing season. Yields increase in temperature until about 29C for corn, 30C for soybeans, and 32C for cotton, but temperatures above these thresholds become very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. The same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found whether we consider time series or cross-sectional variation in weather and yields. This suggests limited potential for adaptation within crop species because the latter includes farmers' adaptations to warmer climates and the former does not. Area-weighted average yields given current growing regions are predicted to decrease by 31-43% under the slowest warming scenario and 67-79% under the most rapid warming scenario by the end of the century. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w13799 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/571475 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wolfram Schlenker,Michael J. Roberts. Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w13799.pdf（1112KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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