| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w13918 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 13918 |
| The \"Thin Film Of Gold\": Monetary Rules and Policy Credibility In Developing Countries | |
| Niall Ferguson; Moritz Schularick | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-04-03 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper asks whether developing countries can reap credibility gains from submitting policy to a strict monetary rule. Following earlier work, we look at the gold standard era (1880-1914) as a "natural experiment" to test whether adoption of a rule-based monetary framework such as the gold standard increased policy credibility. On the basis of the largest possible dataset covering almost sixty independent and colonial borrowers in the London market, we challenge the traditional view that gold standard adherence worked as a credible commitment mechanism that was rewarded by financial markets with lower borrowing costs. We demonstrate that in the poor periphery -- where policy credibility is a particularly acute problem -- the market looked behind "the thin film of gold". Our results point to a dichotomy: whereas country risk premia fell after gold adoption in developed countries, there were no credibility gains in the volatile economic and political environments of developing countries. History shows that monetary policy rules are no short-cut to credibility in situations where vulnerability to economic and political shocks, not time-inconsistency, are overarching concerns for investors. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Factor Mobility ; International Finance ; History ; Macroeconomic History ; Financial History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w13918 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/571592 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Niall Ferguson,Moritz Schularick. The \"Thin Film Of Gold\": Monetary Rules and Policy Credibility In Developing Countries. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w13918.pdf（155KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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