全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w14028
来源ID	Working Paper 14028
	Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics
	Eric M. Leeper; Todd B. Walker; Shu-Chun Susan Yang
发表日期	2008-05-23
出版年	2008
语种	英语
摘要	Fiscal foresight---the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future---is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. Simple theoretical examples show that foresight produces equilibrium time series with a non-invertible moving average component, which misaligns the agents' and the econometrician's information sets in estimated VARs. Economically meaningful shocks to taxes, therefore, cannot be extracted from statistical innovations in conventional ways. Econometric analyses that fail to align agents' and the econometrician's information sets can produce distorted inferences about the effects of tax policies. Because non-invertibility arises as a natural outgrowth of the fact that agents' optimal decisions discount future tax obligations, it is likely to be endemic to the study of fiscal policy. In light of the implications of the analytical framework, we evaluate two existing empirical approaches to quantifying the impacts of fiscal foresight. The paper also offers a formal interpretation of the narrative approach to identifying fiscal policy.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; Taxation
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w14028
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/571702
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Eric M. Leeper,Todd B. Walker,Shu-Chun Susan Yang. Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics. 2008.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w14028.pdf（417KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览