全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w14048
来源ID	Working Paper 14048
	Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels
	Steven J. Davis; James A. Kahn
发表日期	2008-05-30
出版年	2008
语种	英语
摘要	We review evidence on the Great Moderation in conjunction with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level. We combine the two types of evidence to develop a tentative story for important components of the aggregate volatility decline and its consequences. The key ingredients are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility -- most dramatically in the durable goods sector -- but the absence of a decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s much of the moderation reflects a decline in high frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w14048
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/571722
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Steven J. Davis,James A. Kahn. Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels. 2008.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w14048.pdf（163KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览