| 来源类型 | Working Paper
|
| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| DOI | 10.3386/w14181
|
| 来源ID | Working Paper 14181
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| Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations |
| Stefano Eusepi; Bruce Preston
|
| 发表日期 | 2008-07-18
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| 出版年 | 2008
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. Agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined and shifts in expectations of future prices affect dynamics. In a real business cycle model, the theoretical framework amplifies and propagates technology shocks. Improved correspondence with data arises from dynamics in beliefs being themselves persistent and because they generate strong intertemporal substitution effects in consumption and leisure. Output volatility is comparable with a rational expectations analysis with a standard deviation of technology shock that is 20 percent smaller, and has substantially more volatility in investment and hours. Persistence in these series is captured, unlike in standard models. Inherited from real business cycle theory, the benchmark model suffers a comovement problem between consumption, hours, output and investment. An augmented model that is consistent with expectations-driven business cycles, in the sense of Beaudry and Portier (2006), resolves these counterfactual predictions. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics
; Economics of Information
; Macroeconomics
; Business Cycles
|
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w14181
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/571855
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Stefano Eusepi,Bruce Preston. Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations. 2008.
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文件名：
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w14181.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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