| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w14361
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 14361
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| Forecasting the Cost of U.S. Health Care in 2040 |
| Robert W. Fogel
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| 发表日期 | 2008-09-25
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| 出版年 | 2008
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | One of the most important debates among health economists in rich nations is whether advances in biotechnology will spare their health care systems from a financial crisis. We must consider that prevalence rates of chronic diseases declined during the twentieth century and that this rate of decline has accelerated. However, health care costs may continue to increase even as the age of onset of chronic diseases is delayed, because the proportion of a cohort living to late ages will increase. The accelerating decline in the prevalence of chronic diseases during the course of the twentieth century supports the proposition that increases in life expectancy during the twenty-first century will be fairly large, but the effect on health care in the U.S. will be modest. The income elasticity for health services is calculated at 1.6, meaning that income expenditures on health care in the U.S. are likely to rise from a current level of about 15 percent to about 29 percent of GDP in 2040. |
| 主题 | Health, Education, and Welfare
; Health
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w14361
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572035
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Robert W. Fogel. Forecasting the Cost of U.S. Health Care in 2040. 2008.
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文件名：
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w14361.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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