| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w14426 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 14426 |
| Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Global Economy | |
| David von Below; Torsten Persson | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-10-21 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of parameters in the model's most important equations are drawn randomly from pre-specified distributions, and present results in the forms of fan charts and histograms. Our results suggest that under a Business-As-Usual scenario, the median increase of global mean temperature in 2105 relative to 1900 will be around 4.5 °C. The 99 percent confidence interval ranges from 3.0 °C to 6.9 °C. Uncertainty about socio-economic drivers of climate change lie behind a non-trivial part of this uncertainty about global warming. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Development and Growth ; Development ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w14426 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572101 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David von Below,Torsten Persson. Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Global Economy. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w14426.pdf（805KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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