全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w14551
来源ID	Working Paper 14551
	What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?
	Andrew Mountford; Harald Uhlig
发表日期	2008-12-11
出版年	2008
语种	英语
摘要	We propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions. Specifically, we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock, while controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock. We explicitly allow for the possibility of announcement effects, i.e., that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future, but not at present. We construct the impulse responses to three linear combinations of these fiscal shocks, corresponding to the three scenarios of deficit-spending, deficit-financed tax cuts and a balanced budget spending expansion. We apply the method to US quarterly data from 1955-2000. We find that deficit-financed tax cuts work best among these three scenarios to improve GDP, with a maximal present value multiplier of five dollars of total additional GDP per each dollar of the total cut in government revenue five years after the shock.
主题	Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; National Fiscal Issues
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w14551
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572225
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andrew Mountford,Harald Uhlig. What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?. 2008.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w14551.pdf（487KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览