| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w14563 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 14563 |
| The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited | |
| Alan S. Blinder; Jeremy B. Rudd | |
| 发表日期 | 2008-12-11 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | U.S. inflation data exhibit two notable spikes into the double-digit range in 1973-1974 and again in 1978-1980. The well-known "supply-shock" explanation attributes both spikes to large food and energy shocks plus, in the case of 1973-1974, the removal of price controls. Yet critics of this explanation have (a) attributed the surges in inflation to monetary policy and (b) pointed to the far smaller impacts of more recent oil shocks as evidence against the supply-shock explanation. This paper reexamines the impacts of the supply shocks of the 1970s in the light of the new data, new events, new theories, and new econometric studies that have accumulated over the past quarter century. We find that the classic supply-shock explanation holds up very well; in particular, neither data revisions nor updated econometric estimates substantially change the evaluations of the 1972-1983 period that were made 25 years (or more) ago. We also rebut several variants of the claim that monetary policy, rather than supply shocks, was really to blame for the inflation spikes. Finally, we examine several changes in the economy that may explain why the impacts of oil shocks are so much smaller now than they were in the 1970s. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w14563 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572237 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alan S. Blinder,Jeremy B. Rudd. The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w14563.pdf（401KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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