| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w14638 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 14638 |
| The Perils of the Learning Model For Modeling Endogenous Technological Change | |
| William D. Nordhaus | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-01-08 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Learning or experience curves are widely used to estimate cost functions in manufacturing modeling. They have recently been introduced in policy models of energy and global warming economics to make the process of technological change endogenous. It is not widely appreciated that this is a dangerous modeling strategy. The present note has three points. First, it shows that there is a fundamental statistical identification problem in trying to separate learning from exogenous technological change and that the estimated learning coefficient will generally be biased upwards. Second, we present two empirical tests that illustrate the potential bias in practice and show that learning parameters are not robust to alternative specifications. Finally, we show that an overestimate of the learning coefficient will provide incorrect estimates of the total marginal cost of output and will therefore bias optimization models to tilt toward technologies that are incorrectly specified as having high learning coefficients. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Development and Growth ; Development ; Innovation and R& ; D |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w14638 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572312 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | William D. Nordhaus. The Perils of the Learning Model For Modeling Endogenous Technological Change. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w14638.pdf（159KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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