| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w14764 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 14764 |
| Groupthink: Collective Delusions in Organizations and Markets | |
| Roland Bénabou | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-03-02 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | I develop a model of (individually rational) collective reality denial in groups, organizations and markets. Whether participants' tendencies toward wishful thinking reinforce or dampen each other is shown to hinge on a simple and novel mechanism. When an agent can expect to benefit from other's delusions, this makes him more of a realist; when he is more likely to suffer losses from them this pushes him toward denial, which becomes contagious. This general "Mutually Assured Delusion" principle can give rise to multiple social cognitions of reality, irrespective of any strategic payoff interactions or private signals. It also implies that in hierachical organizations realism or denial will trickle down, causing subordinates to take their mindsets and beliefs from the leaders. Contagious "exuberance" can also seize asset markets, leading to evidence-resistant investment frenzies and subsequent deep crashes. In addition to collective illusions of control, the model accounts for the mirror case of fatalism and collective resignation. The welfare analysis differentiates valuable group morale from harmful groupthink and identifies a fundamental tension in organizations' attitudes toward free speech and dissent. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Households and Firms ; General Equilibrium ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Financial Economics ; Other ; Culture |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w14764 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572440 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Roland Bénabou. Groupthink: Collective Delusions in Organizations and Markets. 2009. |
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| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w14764.pdf（495KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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