| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w14785 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 14785 |
| Vanishing Third World Emigrants? | |
| Timothy J. Hatton; Jeffrey G. Williamson | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-03-12 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper documents a stylized fact not well appreciated in the literature. The Third World has been undergoing an emigration life cycle since the 1960s, and, except for Africa, emigration rates have been level or even declining since a peak in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. The current economic crisis will serve only to accelerate those trends. The paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving these Third World emigration life cycles to the United States since 1970 -- the income gap between the US and the sending country, the education gap between the US and the sending country, the poverty trap, the size of the cohort at risk, and migrant stock dynamics. It then projects the life cycle up to 2024. The projections imply that pressure on Third World emigration over the next two decades will not increase. It also suggests that future US immigrants will be more African and less Hispanic than in the past. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Factor Mobility ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Development and Growth ; Development |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w14785 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572461 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Timothy J. Hatton,Jeffrey G. Williamson. Vanishing Third World Emigrants?. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w14785.pdf（117KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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