| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w14795 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 14795 |
| Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts | |
| Michael B. Devereux; Gregor W. Smith; James Yetman | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-03-18 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciation across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or Backus-Smith puzzle - has prompted research on risk-sharing indicators with incomplete asset markets. That research generally implies that the association holds in forecasts, rather than realizations. Using professional forecasts for 28 countries for 1990-2008 we find no such association, thus deepening the puzzle. Independent evidence on the weak link between forecasts for consumption and real interest rates suggests that the presence of 'hand-to-mouth' consumers may help to resolve the anomaly. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w14795 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572471 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael B. Devereux,Gregor W. Smith,James Yetman. Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecasts. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w14795.pdf（258KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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