| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w14820 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 14820 |
| The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe | |
| David E. Bloom; David Canning; Günther Fink; Jocelyn E. Finlay | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-03-25 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze the effect of fertility on income per capita with a particular focus on the experience of Europe. For European countries with below-replacement fertility, the cost of continued low fertility will only be observed in the long run. We show that in the short run, a fall in the fertility rate will lower the youth dependency ratio and increase the working-age share, thus raising income per capita. In the long run, however, the burden of old-age dependency dominates the youth dependency decline, and continued low fertility will lead to small working-age shares in the absence of large migration inflows. We show that the currently very high working-age shares generated by the recent declines in fertility and migration inflows are not sustainable, and that significant drops in the relative size of the working-age population should be expected. Without substantial adjustments in labor force participation or migration policies, the potential negative repercussions on the European economy are large. |
| 主题 | Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Development and Growth ; Country Studies |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w14820 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572496 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David E. Bloom,David Canning,Günther Fink,et al. The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w14820.pdf（225KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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