| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w14862 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 14862 |
| The Great Inflation Drift | |
| Marvin Goodfriend; Robert G. King | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-04-08 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A standard statistical perspective on the U.S. Great Inflation is that it involves an increase in the stochastic trend rate of inflation, defined as the long-term forecast of inflation at each point in time. That perspective receives support from two sources: the behavior of long-term interest rates which are generally supposed to contain private sector forecasts, and statistical studies of U.S. inflation dynamics. We show that a textbook macroeconomic model delivers such a stochastic inflation trend, when there are shifts in the growth rate of capacity output, under two behavioral hypotheses about the central bank: (i) that it seeks to maintain output at capacity; and (ii) that it seeks to maintain continuity of the short-term interest rate. The theory then identifies major upswings in trend inflation with unexpectedly slow growth of capacity output. We interpret the rise of inflation in the U.S. from the perspective of this simple macroeconomic framework. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w14862 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572537 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marvin Goodfriend,Robert G. King. The Great Inflation Drift. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w14862.pdf（1667KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
