全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w15049
来源ID	Working Paper 15049
	Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence
	Robert B. Barsky; Eric R. Sims
发表日期	2009-06-04
出版年	2009
语种	英语
摘要	Innovations to measures of consumer confidence convey incremental information about economic activity far into the future. Comparing the shapes of impulse responses to confidence innovations in the data with the predictions of a calibrated New Keynesian model, we find little evidence of a strong causal channel from autonomous movements in sentiment to economic outcomes (the "animal spirits" interpretation). Rather, these impulse responses support an alternative hypothesis that the surprise movements in confidence reflect information about future economic prospects (the "information" view). Confidence innovations are best characterized as noisy measures of changes in expected productivity growth over a relatively long horizon.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w15049
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572725
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Robert B. Barsky,Eric R. Sims. Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence. 2009.