| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w15220 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 15220 |
| What is the probability your vote will make a difference? | |
| Andrew Gelman; Nate Silver; Aaron Edlin | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-08-13 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state-by-state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election. |
| 主题 | Public Economics ; Other ; Law and Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w15220 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572896 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Andrew Gelman,Nate Silver,Aaron Edlin. What is the probability your vote will make a difference?. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w15220.pdf（117KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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