| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w15288 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 15288 |
| Variance in Death and Its Implications for Modeling and Forecasting Mortality | |
| Shripad Tuljapurkar; Ryan D. Edwards | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-08-20 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Entropy, or the gradual decline through age in the survivorship function, reflects the considerable amount of variance in length of life found in any human population. Part is due to the well-known variation in life expectancy between groups: large differences according to race, sex, socioeconomic status, or other covariates. But within-group variance is very large even in narrowly defined groups, and it varies strongly and inversely with the group average length of life. We show that variance in length of life is inversely related to the Gompertz slope of log mortality through age, and we reveal its relationship to variance in a multiplicative frailty index. Our findings bear a variety of implications for modeling and forecasting mortality. In particular, we examine how the assumption of proportional hazards fails to account adequately for differences in subgroup variance, and we discuss how several common forecasting models treat the variance along the temporal dimension. |
| 主题 | Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; History ; Labor and Health History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w15288 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572962 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shripad Tuljapurkar,Ryan D. Edwards. Variance in Death and Its Implications for Modeling and Forecasting Mortality. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w15288.pdf（229KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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