| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w15358 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 15358 |
| Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure | |
| Andrew K. Rose; Mark M. Spiegel | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-09-17 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 85 countries; we focus on international linkages that may have allowed the crisis to spread across countries. Our model of the cross-country incidence of the crisis combines 2008 changes in real GDP, the stock market, country credit ratings, and the exchange rate. We explore the linkages between these manifestations of the crisis and a number of its possible causes from 2006 and earlier. The causes we consider are both national (such as equity market run-ups that preceded the crisis) and, critically, international financial and real linkages between countries and the epicenter of the crisis. We consider the United States to be the most natural origin of the 2008 crisis, though we also consider six alternative sources of the crisis. A country holding American securities that deteriorate in value is exposed to an American crisis through a financial channel. Similarly, a country which exports to the United States is exposed to an American downturn through a real channel. Despite the fact that we use a wide number of possible causes in a flexible statistical framework, we are unable to find strong evidence that international linkages can be clearly associated with the incidence of the crisis. In particular, countries heavily exposed to either American assets or trade seem to behave little differently than other countries; if anything, countries seem to have benefited slightly from American exposure. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; International Finance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w15358 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573033 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Andrew K. Rose,Mark M. Spiegel. Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w15358.pdf（252KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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