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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w15369
来源IDWorking Paper 15369
Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes
Robert J. Barro; Charles J. Redlick
发表日期2009-09-17
出版年2009
语种英语
摘要For U.S. annual data that include WWII, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4-0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6-0.7 over two years. If the change in defense spending is "permanent" (gauged by Ramey's defense-news variable), the multipliers are higher by 0.1-0.2. The estimated multipliers are all significantly less than one and apply for given average marginal income-tax rates. We cannot estimate reliable multipliers for non-defense purchases because of the lack of good instruments. Since the defense-spending multipliers are less than one, greater spending crowds out other components of GDP, mainly investment, but also non-defense government purchases and net exports. Consumer expenditure on non-durables and services has only a small response. In a post-1950 sample, increases in average marginal income-tax rates (measured by a newly constructed time series) have significantly negative effects on GDP. When interpreted as a tax multiplier, the magnitude is around 1.1. When we hold constant marginal tax rates, we find no statistically significant effects on GDP from changes in federal tax revenue (using the Romer-Romer exogenous federal tax-revenue change as an instrument). In contrast, with revenue held constant, increases in marginal tax rates still have a statistically significant negative effect on GDP. Therefore, tax changes seem to affect GDP mainly through substitution effects, rather than wealth effects. The combination of the estimated spending and tax multipliers implies that balanced-budget multipliers for defense spending are negative.
主题Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; National Fiscal Issues
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w15369
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573044
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Robert J. Barro,Charles J. Redlick. Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes. 2009.
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