| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w15467 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 15467 |
| Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? A structural interpretation of changes in the macroeconomic effects of oil prices | |
| Olivier J. Blanchard; Marianna Riggi | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-10-29 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In the 1970s, large increases in the price of oil were associated with sharp decreases in output and large increases in inflation. In the 2000s, and at least until the end of 2007, even larger increases in the price of oil were associated with much milder movements in output and inflation. Using a structural VAR approach Blanchard and Gali (2007a) argued that this has reflected in large part a change in the causal relation from the price of oil to output and inflation. In order to shed light on the possible factors behind the decrease in the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks, we develop a new-Keynesian model, with imported oil used both in production and consumption, and we use a minimum distance estimator that minimizes, over the set of structural parameters and for each of the two samples (pre and post 1984), the distance between the empirical SVAR-based impulse response functions and those implied by the model. Our results point to two relevant changes in the structure of the economy, which have modified the transmission mechanism of the oil shock: vanishing wage indexation and an improvement in the credibility of monetary policy. The relative importance of these two structural changes depends however on how we formalize the process of expectations formation by economic agents. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w15467 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573143 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olivier J. Blanchard,Marianna Riggi. Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? A structural interpretation of changes in the macroeconomic effects of oil prices. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w15467.pdf（428KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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