| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w15547 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 15547 |
| Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Iraq and the Philippines | |
| Eli Berman; Michael Callen; Joseph H. Felter; Jacob N. Shapiro | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-11-24 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive correlation between unemployment and violence in locations with active insurgencies. We test that prediction in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly-available measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied forces; and (2) violence that kills civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost theory, the data emphatically reject a positive correlation between unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces (p<.05%). There is no significant relationship between unemployment and the rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians. We identify several potential explanations, introducing the notion of insurgent precision to adjudicate between the possibilities that predation on the one hand, and security measures and information costs on the other, account for the negative correlation between unemployment and violence in these three conflicts. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Globalization and International Relations ; Public Economics ; Public Goods ; National Fiscal Issues ; Labor Economics ; Unemployment and Immigration ; Development and Growth ; Development ; Country Studies |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w15547 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573223 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Eli Berman,Michael Callen,Joseph H. Felter,et al. Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Iraq and the Philippines. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w15547.pdf（861KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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