| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w15592 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 15592 |
| Effects of Terms of Trade Gains and Tariff Changes on the Measurement of U.S. Productivity Growth | |
| Robert C. Feenstra; Benjamin R. Mandel; Marshall B. Reinsdorf; Matthew J. Slaughter | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-12-17 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Since 1995, growth in productivity in the United States appears to have accelerated dramatically. In this paper, we argue that part of this apparent speed-up actually represents gains in the terms of trade and tariff reductions, especially for information-technology products. We demonstrate how unmeasured gains in the terms of trade and declines in tariffs can cause conventionally measured growth in real output and productivity to be overstated. Building on the GDP function approach of Diewert and Morrison, we develop methods for measuring these effects. From 1995 through 2006, the average growth rates of our alternative price indexes for U.S. imports are 1.5% per year lower than the growth rate of price indexes calculated using official methods. Thus properly measured terms-of-trade gain can account for close to 0.2 percentage points per year, or about 20%, of the 1995-2006 apparent increase in productivity growth for the U.S. economy. Bias in the price indexes used to deflate domestic output is a question beyond the scope of this paper, but if upward bias were also present in those indexes, this could offset some of the effects of mismeasurement of gains in terms of trade. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; International Macroeconomics ; Development and Growth ; Growth and Productivity |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w15592 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573268 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robert C. Feenstra,Benjamin R. Mandel,Marshall B. Reinsdorf,et al. Effects of Terms of Trade Gains and Tariff Changes on the Measurement of U.S. Productivity Growth. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w15592.pdf（775KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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