| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w15782 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 15782 |
| \"Unfunded Liabilities\" and Uncertain Fiscal Financing | |
| Troy Davig; Eric M. Leeper; Todd B. Walker | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-02-25 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a rational expectations framework to study the consequences of alternative means to resolve the "unfunded liabilities'' problem---unsustainable exponential growth in federal Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending with no plan to finance it. Resolution requires specifying a probability distribution for how and when monetary and fiscal policies will change as the economy evolves through the 21st century. Beliefs based on that distribution determine the existence of and the nature of equilibrium. We consider policies that in expectation combine reaching a fiscal limit, some distorting taxation, modest inflation, and some reneging on the government's promised transfers. In the equilibrium, inflation-targeting monetary policy cannot successfully anchor expected inflation. Expectational effects are always present, but need not have large impacts on inflation and interest rates in the short and medium runs. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w15782 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573455 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Troy Davig,Eric M. Leeper,Todd B. Walker. \"Unfunded Liabilities\" and Uncertain Fiscal Financing. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w15782.pdf（356KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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