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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w15883
来源IDWorking Paper 15883
Beauty Contests and Irrational Exuberance: A Neoclassical Approach
George-Marios Angeletos; Guido Lorenzoni; Alessandro Pavan
发表日期2010-04-08
出版年2010
语种英语
摘要The arrival of new, unfamiliar, investment opportunities is often associated with "exuberant" movements in asset prices and real economic activity. During these episodes of high uncertainty, financial markets look at the real sector for signals about the profitability of the new investment opportunities, and vice versa. In this paper, we study how such information spillovers impact the incentives that agents face when making their real economic decisions. On the positive front, we find that the sensitivity of equilibrium outcomes to noise and to higher-order uncertainty is amplified, exacerbating the disconnect from fundamentals. On the normative front, we find that these effects are symptoms of constrained inefficiency; we then investigate policies that can improve welfare in our model without any informational advantage on the government's part. At the heart of these results is a distortion that induces a conventional neoclassical economy to behave as a Keynesian "beauty contest" and to exhibit fluctuations that may look like "irrational exuberance" to an outside observer.
主题Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w15883
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573558
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George-Marios Angeletos,Guido Lorenzoni,Alessandro Pavan. Beauty Contests and Irrational Exuberance: A Neoclassical Approach. 2010.
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