| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16034 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16034 |
| Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfall | |
| Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan; Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy; Jun Hee Kwak | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-05-27 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use a historical quasi-experiment to estimate the causal effect of trade on capital flows. We argue that fluctuations in regional rainfall within the Ottoman Empire capture the exogenous variation in exports from the Empire to Germany, France, and the U.K., during the period of 1859–1913. The identification is based on the following historical facts: First, only surplus production was allowed to be exported from the Empire (provisionistic policy). Second, different products grown in different regions were subject to variation in regional rainfall. Third, different bundles of products were exported to Germany, France, and the U.K. by the Empire. Using the export-bundle-weighted regional rainfall as an instrument for Ottoman exports to each country, our instrumental variable regression suggests the following: When a given region of the Empire received more rainfall than others, the resulting surplus production was exported more to countries that historically imported more of those products, and this leads to higher foreign investment by those countries in the Empire. Our findings support theories predicting complementarity between trade and finance, in which causality runs from trade to capital flows. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics ; History ; Macroeconomic History ; Financial History ; Other History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16034 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573709 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan,Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy,Jun Hee Kwak. Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfall. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16034.pdf（1214KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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