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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w16041
来源IDWorking Paper 16041
CEO Overconfidence and Innovation
Alberto Galasso; Timothy S. Simcoe
发表日期2010-05-27
出版年2010
语种英语
摘要Are CEOs' attitudes and beliefs linked to their fims' innovative performance? This paper uses Malmendier and Tate's measure of overconfidence, based on CEO stock-option exercise, to study the relationship between a CEO's "revealed beliefs" about future performance and standard measures of corporate innovation. We begin by developing a career concern model where CEOs innovate to provide evidence of their ability. The model predicts that overconfident CEOs, who underestimate the probability of failure, are more likely to pursue innovation, and that this effect is larger in more competitive industries. We test these predictions on a panel of large publicly traded firms for the years 1980 to 1994. We find a robust positive association between overconfidence and citation-weighted patent counts in both cross-sectional and fixed-effect models. This effect is larger in more competitive industries. Our results suggest that overconfident CEOs are more likely to take their firms in a new technological direction.
主题Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Development and Growth ; Innovation and R& ; D
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w16041
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573716
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GB/T 7714
Alberto Galasso,Timothy S. Simcoe. CEO Overconfidence and Innovation. 2010.
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