| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16075 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16075 |
| Measuring Business Cycles by Saving for a Rainy Day | |
| Mario J. Crucini; Mototsugu Shintani | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-06-10 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose a simple saving-based measure of the cyclical component in GDP. The measure is motivated by the prediction that the represenative consumer changes savings in response to temporary deviations of income from its stochastic trend, while satisfying a present-value budget constraint. To evaluate our procedure, we employ the bivariate error correction model of Cochrane (1994) to the member countries of the G-7 and Australia. Our estimates reveal, that to a close approximation, the stochastic trend component of GDP is consumption and the transitory component is the error correction term, which justifies the use of our saving-based measure. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16075 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573750 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mario J. Crucini,Mototsugu Shintani. Measuring Business Cycles by Saving for a Rainy Day. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16075.pdf（224KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
