| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16115 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16115 |
| HIV and Fertility Revisited | |
| Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Belgi Turan | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-06-17 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Young (2005) argues that HIV related population declines reinforced by the fertility response to the epidemic will lead to higher capital-labor ratios and to higher per capita incomes in the affected countries of Africa. Using household level data on fertility from South Africa and relying on between cohort variation in country level HIV infection, he estimates a large negative effect of HIV prevalence on fertility. However, the studies that utilize the recent rounds of Demographic Health Surveys, where fertility outcomes are linked to HIV status based on testing, find no effect of the disease on the fertility behavior. This paper tries to bridge this gap by revisiting Young's findings. Young (2005) includes data before 1990, when no data are available on HIV prevalence rates. He assigns all the fertility observations before 1990 with HIV prevalence rates of zero, and this appears to drive the significant negative effect found in his study. When one restricts the sample to the period 1990-1998, where actual HIV data are available, the effect of HIV prevalence on fertility turns out to be positive for South Africa. Simulating Young's model utilizing these new estimates shows that the future generations of South Africa are worse off. |
| 主题 | Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Development and Growth ; Development |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16115 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573789 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan,Belgi Turan. HIV and Fertility Revisited. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16115.pdf（199KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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